-If you ask Western policy makers about the main security threats facing Europe, they come up with two: Jihadists from the so-called Islamic State and President Vladimir Putin's Russia.
The threat from jihadists is clear. But why Russia?
Western governments argue that by annexing Crimea and fomenting war in eastern Ukraine, Mr Putin not only violated Ukraine's sovereignty, he challenged Europe's borders and showed himself to be a dangerous and unpredictable leader.
They worry what he might do next.
So far a full-blown conflagration has not materialised.
Since the Minsk peace deal in February, it feels as though the Ukraine crisis has settled into an uneasy standoff.
Talks on the future of eastern Ukraine proceed with little progress. The ceasefire is being breached by both sides, leading to daily casualties.
Though Moscow denies it, Russian military involvement in rebel areas is widely reported and its soldiers have been captured. Western sanctions remain in place. Russia's relations with the West have soured on many fronts.
But there isn't actually a full-scale war going on.
So what should we expect next?
Assessing that is difficult. One reason Western planners are so nervous is because they are unsure how to read Russian intentions.
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