-Already tired of the 2016 race?
So many candidates, so much noise, but, ultimately, so little true drama. Prognosticators try to create a tough-to-call race like circus performers who fail twice at some daring stunt in order to build the tension for the third and final attempt.
So let's turn to a more grown-up question: Who will be president of the United States in 2031?
First, the easy part. Hillary Rodham Clinton will likely win by about 3 per cent – both in 2016 and 2020.
There is some legendary historical wisdom explaining the limits of an incumbent party's ability to hold the White House for successive terms. However, legends often fall to modern reality.
And here is the modern reality. A Texan named George Mitchell taught the US how to frack its way to abundant energy. Europe decided not to and Japan can't find anywhere to do it. So the US developed an energy advantage to go along with a labour advantage and, within a few years, was transformed from an energy-crippled, economically withering country to a vibrant manufacturer and energy exporter.
Unemployment is down to 5.3 per cent and, with two trade agreements expected in the next two years to further lower export hurdles, our economy will remain robust until the rest of the world can figure out how to get off coal and oil at a reasonable price (thus, for the next decade).
And we have almost no combat boots on the ground anywhere in the world.
With a strong economy supporting the status quo and no wars to challenge it, demographics will decide presidential elections.
//youngertime//
//youngertime//
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